Macroeconomics Outlook 2015 Q1
Macroeconomics Outlook 2015 Q1
Macroeconomics Outlook
Our three major 2015 predictions for the housing market – 1) mortgage rates will hover around 4%, 2) Fed will be unable to raise short-term rates much, 3) home prices will appreciate at least around 4% – remain on track.
US economy disappointed in the 1Q, with preliminary 1Q GDP growth coming in at just 0.2%. The dismal result pushed projections of a mid-year interest rate increase to the fall. We continue to believe a small 25-50bps interest rate move, if it happens at all this year, will have little to no impact on our business and the US housing market. We strongly doubt the Fed has an appetite for more since the ensuing US dollar strength from a large interest rate move will likely push the US economy into a recession.
Outlook for the Dallas Market
Employment in Dallas/Fort-Worth remains strong from a combination of internal growth and corporate relocations to the region. The metroplex is currently producing around 120,000 net new jobs a year and unemployment hovers around 4%, more or less at full employment. Yet, builders will start construction on only 25,000 single family homes in 2015, just 25% of the number of net new jobs created. The severe shortage of desirable housing has caused homes values to jump 9% in the first quarter (year over year).
Despite the unsustainable surge in the 1Q, Dallas homes remain extremely undervalued, especially when one factors in the low mortgage rate and the moderate median income growth in the city. According to the latest Zillow estimate, Dallas median home price is $157,900, less than 3X median income. Compared to other large metros either in the US or abroad, where home prices are typically 5-10X median income, Dallas is cheap. We continue to be hugely bullish on Dallas housing for the next 3 years.
Our Framework for Selecting Property
We continue to be disciplined in our acquisitions. Our four criteria for selecting property are 1) desirable location (good schools, safe neighborhood, quiet street); 2) appealing home for the location (size, number of rooms, amenities; 3) gross rental yield of 12% or more; 4) a purchase price significantly below replacement and market value.
By only purchasing homes that fit our strict criteria, we expect to achieve a minimum net rental yield of 8%. Combined with our projected 3-6% annual increase in home prices, we can provide investors with good current income and total return of around 12% annually.
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